I am going to start of the morning with the bad news first, just because I don’t want to see people getting hopes to high and face disappointment. We are going to have partly cloudy skies Monday night with increasing clouds into the Tuesday. Minnesota and parts of Wisconsin can expect clearing Wednesday morning hours, maybe sooner. Michigan can expect clearing by Wednesday afternoon. Likely hood of seeing auroras is going to depend on when they get here. If they are late in hitting it might be better for us. Remember, just because there is clouds in one area, does not mean you have no chance. I have had night where it was storming where I lived, drove two miles and found a hole in the clouds that made for unique shot. When it gets closer to time you just have to look at really good radar and look for those thin spots. NOAA will be helping us and I will be getting their input as we get closer to time.
This is a view of Sunspot 2824, first one is on the May 22 and second image is May 24. I want you to look closely at the changes within this sunspot. We Can see clearly that the Positive Blue region is spreading in length and might be gaining a little more energy. The red and yellow negative regions are not so disorganized this morning and gaining a little strength, shown in deep red. There is bit more separation between trailing Negative region and leading positive sunspot. Remember to produce CME you want Positive and Negative regions tightly wrapped and you want the deep red and deep blue. Which we still have to some degree and still capable of producing solar flares. Time will tell how it develops.
In contrast this morning we need that there is a distinct reduction in activity this morning, with our last solar flare being 18 hours ago. Question now is what will happen , I think we are going to have to watch how that sunspot develops over next day. It could be dying which is likely or it could just reorganizing and recharging. Often times when sun connects magnetically with earth is dampens activity for a few days, and once it passes us it can become active again. We really do need to be thankful for that safe guard because it does protect earth and our daily lives. And we need to be watchful.
I am going to warn you know there are some arguments between different agencies in the predictions. If you pop over to link below you will see that NASA has storm passing to the right of us and NOAA has it passing the left of us . Both predict a minor slap from either tail of the storm. Right now LASCO 3 is showing me majority of the bulk is to the right of us but there are some pretty good spikes that are going to be dead on. So now this is all about the angle that Majority of flare is taking. We want to pray it is somewhere in between the two predictions. Right now this is predicting to hit is about dark on the 25th. Men make prediction, and mother nature laughs, so do not count on it happening exactly on time. I can promise you this will have sudden onsets that happen quick and then reduce quickly . In short if you aren’t in position and waiting you will miss the big numbers. So when you see numbers starting to rise you need to be looking for hole in clouds and lining yourself up.
I want to encourage you all to take a deeper look into solar science. It is not just about pretty auroras and the excitement of seeing them. Our sun has a huge effect on our lives in ways you likely haven’t thought of. Just this week as that sun spot rolled into view , we saw the start of two tropical storms in atlantic, major flooding in parts of US, and handful of earthquakes above 6.0, largest of which was 7.4 in china. Sun and it’s storms effect humans and animals. It is recorded that when we have increased solar storms humans who suffer chronic pain are in more pain, it can effect those with heart issues and cause more load on the heart muscle and it can cause increased symptoms in those with mental health issues. Want to remember human body does have its own form of electrical charge that can be effected by extremal influence. We know that solar storms can effect electrical grids, satellites, gps, cell phones, wired phones, and radio signals. We have studies that link earthquakes and volcanic activity to solar storms. There are studies that link solar storms into increased strength of storms and lightning. Lots of organizations study parts and pieces, but I haven’t yet found someone who takes all the different pieces and puzzles them into a bigger picture. What solutions could we find to life problems if we were to have that bigger picture. If there are any of you science minded people who love to collect data and work out puzzles, Webpage is designed to have a science club, where you can work together to do that kind of research. Either get a hold of me through website or facebook and I will help you get a club going if you are interested. It really does pay to be curious mind people , makes you more prepared for tomorrow.