Well my earlier predictions are close to on Target. We did have the shock wave from the B Class flare or the edge of the C 8.7 CME from 2822 grazed us, due that shock wave effect that blew electrical charge back toward earth facing on Sat. As predicted it passed quickly, and numbers again dropped. We still have a number of flares that have happened that we are likely to still see activity from some of the flares. Sunday we had a C4.0 which I believe is the one launched at earth. Monday 2822 flared with B 1.9 , Tuesday 2822 flared with B 3.5, and today 2822 flared a C1.5. The last two flares are close or are earth facing , so count down of 36 hours begins. Keeping in mind if the wind was fast it could come sooner than expected. 2822 and 2823 will be earth facing for next 3 days. Anything that comes in that time frame should be direct hit on earth. As you can see from chart below these sunspot system are still active with multiple flares each day.
Current conditions have Windspeeds at 487 km per second, helispherical power is starting rise at 54 gigawatts. We have a -4 BZ though, density is a bit weak. Currently at KP3 which means if you are in northern Michigan you should be able to see some weak auroras with a camera, you will not see them with your eyes. Look very low on northern horizon. Currently have high thin cloud cover which might still allow us to see lights, Humidity is at 45% in Northern Michigan, but will be rising to 65% by 1am, then it should begin reduce again. NOAA is predicting we could see a KP5 from the activity related to flares and the coronal hole streams. We have about 36 hours before the winds from that large coronal hole at the southern pole region begins to reach us. I am thinking because that is more developed region it may have stronger winds.
Now for the good news bad new. Good new is that weather should remain partly cloudy through this weekend. Bad news early on Monday we will see a period of showers move through, with mild clearing in evening hours, conditions will remain mostly cloudy through Tuesday. Brief period of Thunderstorms on the 22 is possible in Northern Michigan. Southern Michigan will see more clouds and larger periods of rain and thunderstorms. Wisconsin will see steady rain and thunderstorms staring 19th through the 26th. I wish I could visit Wisconsin, I so want thunderstorms.