The problem with aurora hunting is with today’s technology we still can’t know definitively what is happening 93 million miles away. From the start NOAA and NASA WAS-ENLIL had two different trajectories that they predicted storms would go. NASA had it skate to the right of us, and NOAA the left with a difference of up to 30 degrees. Not a great way to start out. I think part of the problem is we are started into the cycle with processes happening that we have never experienced before and it making some major changes in how the electromagnetic current is
If you have been watching the last few flares you might have notice we have a problem with forecasts, and they aren’t quite matching is actually happening. I have a few theories to why that is. First one being is they aren’t accounting for the force of the snappy and how it is pushing plasma in wind in a direction other than what the are accounting for. The second is a far more complex and deeply troubling reason. That would be that our magnetic reversal on earth is progressing faster than what they think and our magnetosphere that normally protects
Well my earlier predictions are close to on Target. We did have the shock wave from the B Class flare or the edge of the C 8.7 CME from 2822 grazed us, due that shock wave effect that blew electrical charge back toward earth facing on Sat. As predicted it passed quickly, and numbers again dropped. We still have a number of flares that have happened that we are likely to still see activity from some of the flares. Sunday we had a C4.0 which I believe is the one launched at earth. Monday 2822 flared with B 1.9 ,
Today is a lesson in how wrong NASA and NOAA can have forecasts. I had a feeling this was due to hit early this morning, despite prediction it would hit tomorrow morning and I did say it was going to be a scoop shovel event that would go bigger than expected, I wasn’t wrong. It has just hit a KP7 with one the strongest hemispheric power connections we have seen in a very long time. Unfortunately it is hitting in day light hours and it seems to be very short lived. So I would say the prior Wes-Enlil from Sunday
The question we are all asking, is will this sunspot continue. At the moment it seems NASA is down grading predictions for this sunspot region. Seem the coronal holes have a weaker wind stream and the small B class flare is going to brush off the left of us. Looking at the below comparison of the sunspots it seems 2822 or the northern coronal hole is beginning to spread. It remains capable of producing a CME with tightly wrapped polarities. but the outer edges seem to be growing and spreading. It is has seem to reduce activity as it is
Seems that our sunspot is continuing to grow. If you look at the above image and compare the two sunspots you will notice some drastic changes. The large incoming spot is growing and the polarities are becoming more defined. It continues to spark off small snaps and pops. While the earth facing sunspot is loosing it’s energy and spreading. … Continue readingUpdate On The Growing Sunspot
May started off a little quite but it isn’t likely to stay that way. On May 7th we had a M3.91 size flare. We are not likely to see much activity from this flare, as it was not earth facing. However this is a very good size sunspot with very complex structures. As you watch the video below you will see several snaps as it erupts at the sunspot then a tidal wave that floods out along magnetic fields from that sunspot region. Experts are predicting that we are very likely to see more than one flare out of the
We have achieved KP 5 early as I suspected we would. We do have high clouds through much of the viewing area. There are two a patches of heaving clouds, one back in North/central Wisconsin and one of UP. These are slowly moving eastward and there may be a window in next few hour on western side of the state. We do have a heavier cloud system off the west of Lake Michigan that will be incoming through the over night hours and rain should be through most of Northern Michigan by Sat afternoon. Unfortunately doesn’t appear clouds will let
We are going to start this post out a little different , at the request of some of our RVers who want a shareable post. The South East will see dangerous storms setting up this afternoon into the over night hours. This could compass Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, and the Carolina’s . Tornados, derechos, high winds, and heavy lightning are all possible. If you are in Rv tonight would be a good night for getting a hotel, so you have sturdy shelter and are not in an RV. Make sure you have food and
Flaring on the sun is continuing this morning. The question on everyone’s mind is the sun working up to breaking loose with a major CME before it settles? So lets start with a view in 193 AIA, and really dig in to what is going on. We have a dominate coronal hole on the south exiting earth facing in the next day or so, but it proving us with low level winds at the moment. Just coming earth facing later today, is sunspot region 2816 which continue to produce flaring. Now things erupting from that region should hit us to
I do believe that I have your undivided attention this morning. I have a feeling you are going to be bright eyed and bushy tailed today with anticipation. You should how ever plan to do a bit of napping in day light hours, and be on the ready at night because the chances are increasing that you could have a very busy week. For the third day running we have had solar flaring and some reaching M Class status just about midnight. … Continue readingFlaring On The Sun Continues!
We are going to start off with a time-lapse of the activity on the sun this month. I think this has been the best March we have had in a very long time with repeated good opportunities to get great images of the sun. Think we should be very grateful. Lets look at head to the time line prediction for this weekend in middle latitudes where we are. Northern Latitudes will have slightly better chance at bigger numbers. Unfortunately we will have snow and rain possible till just about 7pm Sunday night. So Saturday There is not going to be
We should see some other rain snow mixes over the next few days before the current system passes to through and jet stream shifts to usher in more spring like temperatures. We are expecting a weak storm system on 17th that may bring some clouds. Should clear for the 19th and 20th, and we should have a some auroras during this period.
… Continue readingNews, Weather and Solar Forecast for End of March.