The Problem With Forecasts

If you have been watching the last few flares you might have notice we have a problem with forecasts, and they aren’t quite matching is actually happening. I have a few theories to why that is. First one being is they aren’t accounting for the force of the snappy and how it is pushing plasma in wind in a direction other than what the are accounting for. The second is a far more complex and deeply troubling reason. That would be that our magnetic reversal on earth is progressing faster than what they think and our magnetosphere that normally protects us is weaker than they have estimated it to be. Which means that even weak solar flares are causing far bigger effects than they would have in years prior to this. While this make for fantastic auroras, there is a down side to it. This could be a troubling issue if we were to have a direct hit from a major solar flare, as it could cause major damage to infrastructure such as electric grid , cell phones, gps and more.

In the last day we have have two M Class flares and 8 Class flares. This doesn’t appear to be over either as we have a very well developed positive batá class flare almost merging toward gamma. As you will see below we have a very well developed positive charged blue spot. Around that central positive charge is wrapped both negative and positive charged areas that are very tightly interwoven. Think of the battery in your car. When you jump a battery in another car, you attach your cables attached to your battery, now rather than connect to other battery tap the unconnected ends together. You get a little explosion of energy and sparks and the electricity makes a circuit. Now enlarge million times in size, The magnetic field lines are the path of least resistance or the wires that electricity follows. When they are tightly wrapped together as they are here, those loops of energy will bump into each other or twist up into each other causing a major release of energy, In short the flares are the sparks. It is more complex, by far on the sun, because you have magnetic field lines around the sun and different sunspots are connected, but you kind of get the idea of the magnetic electrical current and how it moves from the example.

Trailing behind sunspot 2824, is a smaller still developing sunspot that has also been producing some good size flares. On the southern hemisphere we have some pretty good areas of positive and negative charges. Now these aren’t a sunspot region yet , but they can develop into spots in the future. And they are definitely connected to 2824 as flaring has been snapping down toward them.

Lets start by looking a back to 21st about 5 pm Eastern time. , at some of the flaring. You can get a very clear picture of how the electrically charged plasma is moving along those magnetic field lines. When those lines connect they set off flaring.

This is the Lasco 2 and 3 view of that flare is taking off to either side of earth, NOAA has this going around us, NASA has it making a direct hit sometime Monday.

Stepping Ahead to Today about 4 pm eastern time to the first of our M Class flares followed quickly but the second M Class flare. What you are missing in such a close up view is that flare activity that rippling south, is actually rippling into the region at the south of negative and positive charges that aren’t developed yet, and there is answering snap back toward the north.

Let me preference this by I am a Citizen Scientist, not credentialed expert. I am basing my theory on what I am observing as these solar storms happen, and we see the result of said storms. I am noticing the patterns within these storms and how the are reacting as far as aurora events. This observation might be an explanation to why there is discrepancies between forecast and reality.

What I don’t see happening is change reflected in NOAA forecast, which is still pretty steady low level numbers, They have earth kind of in this valley with little activity surrounded by big hills of this flare. First you must understand that predictions are based on a spiral motion of coronal hole streams. Winds leave the sun straight out, and then are pulled backwards by centrifugal force. Now coronal hole streams are gentle rivers, so this is a straight out flow motion, where as solar flares are not. Here in I think is where we can start to account for the errors in forecasts. We had this pattern last week, when they predicted we would be at 2 and we ended up with KP3 and KP4. NOAA predicted the activity would move slightly off the either side of us leaving us in a valley. But instead we took a more direct hit. What I observed in that flare is that the winds and plasma was propelled across the surface of the sun from the center of the explosions’. Think of it as a bomb blast shooting things sideways before they rise into the air. Last week and this week have a similar pattern of the flare moving across the surface of the sun a good distance toward earth facing direction. If that is case that the winds moved sideways before they escaped the surface of the sun in that straight out direction, it would put the plasma and winds leaving the sun from a much more earth facing position, and might have even shot at out angle instead of just moving straight outward before getting pulled backwards by centrifugal force. In short we were less in the valley than they thought. Based on that I do think we really need to be prepared to see some elevated numbers this week. Be ready for sudden onsets and unpredected spikes. Going to require a great deal of watching the pot and waiting for it boil so to speak. You will have to be prepare to go at any moment just soon as you see numbers moving in more positive direction.

Sunday Morning Update

Sunday Morning Update

Seem we are still getting some C class flares this morning. The spot is rapidly changing, The strong Negative patches directly surrounding the strong Negative hole are loosing a bit if their strength. The front Positive spots seem to be pulling away from the trailing negative region. It is not uncommon for Sunspots to dissipate when they hit earth facing and magnetically connect. Which is not a bad thing if it protects us.

The incoming bright region just visible on the limb has a bit to go before officially being a sunspot.

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