Today is a lesson in how wrong NASA and NOAA can have forecasts. I had a feeling this was due to hit early this morning, despite prediction it would hit tomorrow morning and I did say it was going to be a scoop shovel event that would go bigger than expected, I wasn’t wrong. It has just hit a KP7 with one the strongest hemispheric power connections we have seen in a very long time. Unfortunately it is hitting in day light hours and it seems to be very short lived. So I would say the prior Wes-Enlil from Sunday and Monday was right and they got it wrong when they changed it Tuesday to down grade it. We are taking at least a direct hit from that small B class CME that Early Sunday. At this point I am going to say we are going to have to fly by the seat of our pants, with their predictions being used to very loose guidelines.
Flying here on my gut instinct rather than just data. I am not sure this high level will last till this evening by it should remain at KP4 or higher as we do have a good size coronal hole wrapping clear around the equator of the sun. This spike is likely to be short lived might last a few hours, if we are lucky maybe into night time hours. It is coming from the B Class flare we early Sunday morning. NASA and NOAA thought earth would be long the trailing edge of activity But I think that trailing edge went more earth facing than they expected. If you remember There was a group of looping filaments that popped off earth facing on the southern hemisphere. Followed by the 3.91 C class flare on the northern hemisphere coming form sunspot 2822, that all the agencies thought would be to far around the incoming limb to impact earth. That flare however had a reverberating wave that reached back around the earth facing disk and did interact with that filament region that released the B class flare. So think what happens when you blow on a candle flame. How the flame will stretch out and follow the direction you are blowing the air. So that snapping tsunami wave that whipped back around the earth facing side, blew the departing plasma further earth facing than they expected and we have a far larger impact than they expected. Now just below the wide coronal hole we have a very well defined coronal hole that is coming earth facing today and that should impact likely this weekend and deliver a little stronger wind. This is reflected in their Wes-enlil Plasma Density, I would say they are little low on the Velocity. I am going to say expect windspeeds little closer to 500 KM per second. We still have the two sunspots that are rapidly changing. I think that magnetic connection to earth right right now , is keeping those spots calm, but they are rapidly evolving right now and changing. Sunspot 2822 has not lost isn’t tightly wrapped polarity though it is changing shape. It looks like the polarities are trying to wrap into each other sunspot 2822 is evolving, then negative polarity is becoming stronger and it is starting push apart the positive changed spots and divide them. This could cause a more complex structure to develop with in the sunspot. Sunspot 2823 is starting have the polarities draw in closer to each other but is lacking the well defined negative polarity that we typically see in the red color . There is a pretty good area of positive charge that is getting well defined. I am going to predict that the sun is taking a breath, it is changing and likely building a little energy that will pop off as it rotates out of earth facing and isn’t connected so strongly to earth. That has been a frequent pattern with sunspots over the last few years. We have a trailing bright spot that is just rotating into view that is not developed into classified sunspot yet, it is possible that this could become classified as sunspot if it is growing like 2823. If it is feeding or electrically linked to other sunspots it could destabilize to produce a flare if other sunspots were to release another wave of energy. Think of this like a thunderstorm. How lightning from one end of the storm seems echo or answer each other at the other side of storm. There is a connection there, a circuit that connects them.
My advice is you need to be prepared to go at the drop of the hat. Early this morning I posted some links and a list of phone applications you can use for predictions. I would be getting one of the applications for your phone and I would make sure you pay for the alarm portion of that app, so if it suddenly pops, you have a warning and don’t sleep through it. Also you can use groups to set up call trees, so that your night owls that are wake call if something happens. I would not take forecast by NOAA and NASA as gospel. I know from years of doing this, is they have a less than 50% accuracy rate. It is frequently before or after they predict, as it was this morning when it earlier than than they predicted this morning. It is often bigger or smaller than they think it will be. This is where we look closely at what we are seeing and rely on our gut instincts as much as predictions. My gut, those sunspots aren’t done. We will have at least a KP3 longer than they think we will. I am hoping that they will pop off when the hit the outgoing limb, but still close enough to swirl back at us. My head ache last night predicted a good aurora event, and Well I feel really funky right now. Have taken migraine meds so they headache is dampened a bit, but energy feels wavy. Still have enough of headache to say not done yet. Call it the blessing or a curse, of being sensitive to pressure changes and electromagnetic energy. Lets just say there is a hum this morning. If you suffer from migraines, heart issues , chronic pain, or depression, weigh in and comment on how you felt early this morning and through this afternoon. There is a connection between these conditions and sensitivity changes in electromagnetic energy and changes in pressure of Ionosphere. Aka, whole lot more accurate predictor of what is going on, than all these scientific charts. Low tech for the win.
On this link you will find outline of how they classify different sunspots. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/help/the-magnetic-classification-of-sunspots.html Right now 2822 is still a beta Sunspot. It has simple negative and Positive polarities that are well defined.