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  • Inquiring Minds Want to Know, Did It Miss Us?
    The problem with aurora hunting is with today’s technology we still can’t know definitively what is happening 93 million miles away. From the start NOAA and NASA WAS-ENLIL had two different trajectories that they predicted storms would go. NASA had it skate to the right of us, and NOAA the left with a difference of up to 30 degrees. Not a great way to start out. I think part of the problem is we are started into the cycle with processes happening that we have never experienced before and it making some major changes in how the electromagnetic current is

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  • We have Good News and Bad News
    I am going to start of the morning with the bad news first, just because I don’t want to see people getting hopes to high and face disappointment. … Continue readingWe have Good News and Bad News
  • The Problem With Forecasts
    If you have been watching the last few flares you might have notice we have a problem with forecasts, and they aren’t quite matching is actually happening. I have a few theories to why that is. First one being is they aren’t accounting for the force of the snappy and how it is pushing plasma in wind in a direction other than what the are accounting for. The second is a far more complex and deeply troubling reason. That would be that our magnetic reversal on earth is progressing faster than what they think and our magnetosphere that normally protects

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  • Will This Be Last Of Activity?
    Watch toward the end for two new solar flares Last night we did have two more small flares and this earth facing. At least one of these will likely graze earth and maybe give us just a tiny bump up sometime Sunday night. The sunspots are starting to decay at this point and are starting to loose steam. They can still keep producing small B class flares for the next few days that may have a slight influence. Chart below show the solar flares that have happened last few days. More than likely we are done with any large activity.

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  • Updated Forecast for evening of May 12th
    Well my earlier predictions are close to on Target. We did have the shock wave from the B Class flare or the edge of the C 8.7 CME from 2822 grazed us, due that shock wave effect that blew electrical charge back toward earth facing on Sat. As predicted it passed quickly, and numbers again dropped. We still have a number of flares that have happened that we are likely to still see activity from some of the flares. Sunday we had a C4.0 which I believe is the one launched at earth. Monday 2822 flared with B 1.9 ,

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  • Should Get Excited About KP7?
    Today is a lesson in how wrong NASA and NOAA can have forecasts. I had a feeling this was due to hit early this morning, despite prediction it would hit tomorrow morning and I did say it was going to be a scoop shovel event that would go bigger than expected, I wasn’t wrong. It has just hit a KP7 with one the strongest hemispheric power connections we have seen in a very long time. Unfortunately it is hitting in day light hours and it seems to be very short lived. So I would say the prior Wes-Enlil from Sunday

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  • Forecast for Week of May 12th
    The question we are all asking, is will this sunspot continue. At the moment it seems NASA is down grading predictions for this sunspot region. Seem the coronal holes have a weaker wind stream and the small B class flare is going to brush off the left of us. Looking at the below comparison of the sunspots it seems 2822 or the northern coronal hole is beginning to spread. It remains capable of producing a CME with tightly wrapped polarities. but the outer edges seem to be growing and spreading. It is has seem to reduce activity as it is

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  • So It Begins, Are You Ready?
    The phi angle has take a shift as the coronal hole stream impacts us. The predicted KP4 , KP5 and KP6 are based on the coronal hole streams that should impact us starting sometime Tuesday, not so far on CME’s. The great news is though we have a had small B class flare that did produce a CME , this should impact us after the coronal hole stream impacts us so this means, very likely another scoop shovel event similar to what we saw last month. You should expect sudden impact spikes and you need to be watching your apps

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  • Update On The Growing Sunspot
    Seems that our sunspot is continuing to grow. If you look at the above image and compare the two sunspots you will notice some drastic changes. The large incoming spot is growing and the polarities are becoming more defined. It continues to spark off small snaps and pops. While the earth facing sunspot is loosing it’s energy and spreading. … Continue readingUpdate On The Growing Sunspot
  • Strange tales, Reporters, Science and the Sun.
    Yesterday caught a news report from Sky news out of Australia that was very fascinating. Someone filmed a meeting they had with a top CNN reporter. They caught the reporter admitting that everything in the news is being decided by the owners of several big news organization in advance . He admitted that some stories they made up and created to manipulate the public. He admitted that media was skewing facts to fit their narrative and control public reactions. He also point blank said that, “Climate change will be the new racism because we can keep that going for years”.

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  • Will We See Another Active Aurora Month?
    May started off a little quite but it isn’t likely to stay that way. On May 7th we had a M3.91 size flare. We are not likely to see much activity from this flare, as it was not earth facing. However this is a very good size sunspot with very complex structures. As you watch the video below you will see several snaps as it erupts at the sunspot then a tidal wave that floods out along magnetic fields from that sunspot region. Experts are predicting that we are very likely to see more than one flare out of the

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  • Do We Have A Chance At Aurora?
    Good news is there might be a very brief chance at getting auroras tonight in the very early evening. NOAA is predicting the peak about 6 to 8 pm eastern time but there could be lingering auroras into the evening hours. Most areas might see partly cloudy skies with increasing clouds into Monday. Never know until you try, that is the fun of hunting. Have fun and show us your best shot! Monday night into Tuesday will see possible thunderstorms early in morning and then again on Wednesday. Might be the first chance of lightning in the Great Lakes. If

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  • Friday April 23rd forecast
    We have achieved KP 5 early as I suspected we would. We do have high clouds through much of the viewing area. There are two a patches of heaving clouds, one back in North/central Wisconsin and one of UP. These are slowly moving eastward and there may be a window in next few hour on western side of the state. We do have a heavier cloud system off the west of Lake Michigan that will be incoming through the over night hours and rain should be through most of Northern Michigan by Sat afternoon. Unfortunately doesn’t appear clouds will let

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  • Dangerous Weather, Space Weather and Happy Photographers!
    We are going to start this post out a little different , at the request of some of our RVers who want a shareable post. The South East will see dangerous storms setting up this afternoon into the over night hours. This could compass Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, and the Carolina’s . Tornados, derechos, high winds, and heavy lightning are all possible. If you are in Rv tonight would be a good night for getting a hotel, so you have sturdy shelter and are not in an RV. Make sure you have food and

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  • Is The Sun Working Up To Major CME?
    Flaring on the sun is continuing this morning. The question on everyone’s mind is the sun working up to breaking loose with a major CME before it settles? So lets start with a view in 193 AIA, and really dig in to what is going on. We have a dominate coronal hole on the south exiting earth facing in the next day or so, but it proving us with low level winds at the moment. Just coming earth facing later today, is sunspot region 2816 which continue to produce flaring. Now things erupting from that region should hit us to

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  • Flaring On The Sun Continues!
    I do believe that I have your undivided attention this morning. I have a feeling you are going to be bright eyed and bushy tailed today with anticipation. You should how ever plan to do a bit of napping in day light hours, and be on the ready at night because the chances are increasing that you could have a very busy week. For the third day running we have had solar flaring and some reaching M Class status just about midnight. … Continue readingFlaring On The Sun Continues!
  • Was Last Night The Big Show or Is More To Come?
    Few of you braved the cold last night to get out there and get some auroras. We were seeing some great shots in group today. If you would like your image with credits on website, then please email me them with your information of where you where, times and your experience and I will a post with break down of the storm with your stories Before we get into the forecast I want you take a moment and watch this YouTube video. I want you in particular to note his comparison of the sun a year ago to where we

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  • THE SUN IS ROARING BACK TO LIFE
    Headline today is the suns activity is taking a deep breath ahead of roar. We saw in the past few days, a brief spike in activity up to Kp 5 hit unexpectedly due to helispherical current, not necessary what typically causes auroras. Following that we have seen a rapid development in sunspots. following this link will take you to graph that shows the development of the major sunspot over the the last four days. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/region/12814.html This is a view of the lead sunspot region 2814 that is currently earth facing. When looking at sunspot region you want to watch for

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  • Will Auroras Dance In Coming Days?
    The question on all our minds is will we see a repeat of last month, and will our weather clear enough we can enjoy auroras? The good news is we are seeing some positive signs that we might have elevated activity. Below is video of the sun over the the last week, to show you have activity is picking up. We did have a CME over night into this morning, how ever it is not going to be a direct hit because it was coming from the incoming limb and was not earth facing. We may see just a tiny

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  • Is April Playing Tricks On Us?
    We may be getting our April fools a little bit late this weekend. We will we have auroras seems to be the grand question. I am seeing nothing that would indicate a big event at this point point. Sun has been very quite last few days with only a few coronal hole drifting through and maybe an odd not very active filament on the southern hemisphere. We should see very minor elevation in winds from coronal holes to near normal range or maybe about a KP3. Best chance late on 4th into 5th to see the peak winds. Unfortunately, we

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  • Will We Get Another Large Solar Storm This Weekend?
    We are going to start off with a time-lapse of the activity on the sun this month. I think this has been the best March we have had in a very long time with repeated good opportunities to get great images of the sun. Think we should be very grateful. Lets look at head to the time line prediction for this weekend in middle latitudes where we are. Northern Latitudes will have slightly better chance at bigger numbers. Unfortunately we will have snow and rain possible till just about 7pm Sunday night. So Saturday There is not going to be

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  • First Official CME Of The New Cycle.
    March has definitely brought out us out of Minimum, no doubt we are in the next cycle! Last night we saw the impact from the very first official CME of cycle 25. Most of us, didn’t get to see it due to clouds and rain moving through the Midwest region. CME took off from the decaying sunspot region on the outgoing limb. Impact here reached a KP5 for brief spike and then dropped for a prolonged kp4. Exciting news even if we could not see it as it means, we are back in business and will be seeing more of

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  • We Do Have Alerts Going Into Evening
    We do have some alerts posted from NOAA and we have several onsets. We have a few hours left on these alerts so they may last until dark. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/notifications-timeline We did have a CME yesterday and this was expected to impact us a tiny bit. We would get a initial bump from actual plasma shock wave and then winds should spiral in. These will be moderate. We are continuing to see a steam on Lasco 3, coming from the incoming sunspot , it isn’t earth facing so think it will be a slight miss. If the activity continues for the

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  • Will Tonight Be Similar To Last Night?
    The questions in everyone’s mind is will we get a repeat of last night? I would stay not exactly the same and I expect the timing will be vastly different. But before we dip into that. You might want to sign up as a paid member. Next week will discuss this storm, and have a question and answer session. We will also start Photo club. I have a feeling the most useful place to start will be with some free editing programs and some basics on how to use them, as many of you will have photos you want to

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  • Nearly Time To Get Out There
    Windspeed , density and temperature are picking up. We are having a CIR or scoop shovel event. Faster stream is catching up with slower one and shoving it faster like a shovel pushing snow, piling plasma and radiated winds like the snow on that shovel.. Phi angle will start moving up and down just before the bz (red line) goes negative. Once that Windspeed or yellow line breaks 380 or 400 km per second be ready.
  • What Can You Look Foreword To This Weekend
    New from Peggy’s Desk, Tiffany Wright has donated our Zoom, So everyone in group give her bit of thank you. She is in Real Estate so should you need a house, might want to look her up. This Means as soon as you sign up as paid members we can start the Aurora Class and photography club. We will be covering some free resources I have found for editing, and giving you some basic walk throughs. Adobe just launched a whole bunch of new features in photoshop. I think the most exciting is the sky replacement tool which will boost

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