The problem with aurora hunting is with today’s technology we still can’t know definitively what is happening 93 million miles away. From the start NOAA and NASA WAS-ENLIL had two different trajectories that they predicted storms would go. NASA had it skate to the right of us, and NOAA the left with a difference of up to 30 degrees. Not a great way to start out. I think part of the problem is we are started into the cycle with processes happening that we have never experienced before and it making some major changes in how the electromagnetic current is
If you have been watching the last few flares you might have notice we have a problem with forecasts, and they aren’t quite matching is actually happening. I have a few theories to why that is. First one being is they aren’t accounting for the force of the snappy and how it is pushing plasma in wind in a direction other than what the are accounting for. The second is a far more complex and deeply troubling reason. That would be that our magnetic reversal on earth is progressing faster than what they think and our magnetosphere that normally protects
Watch toward the end for two new solar flares Last night we did have two more small flares and this earth facing. At least one of these will likely graze earth and maybe give us just a tiny bump up sometime Sunday night. The sunspots are starting to decay at this point and are starting to loose steam. They can still keep producing small B class flares for the next few days that may have a slight influence. Chart below show the solar flares that have happened last few days. More than likely we are done with any large activity.
Well my earlier predictions are close to on Target. We did have the shock wave from the B Class flare or the edge of the C 8.7 CME from 2822 grazed us, due that shock wave effect that blew electrical charge back toward earth facing on Sat. As predicted it passed quickly, and numbers again dropped. We still have a number of flares that have happened that we are likely to still see activity from some of the flares. Sunday we had a C4.0 which I believe is the one launched at earth. Monday 2822 flared with B 1.9 ,
Today is a lesson in how wrong NASA and NOAA can have forecasts. I had a feeling this was due to hit early this morning, despite prediction it would hit tomorrow morning and I did say it was going to be a scoop shovel event that would go bigger than expected, I wasn’t wrong. It has just hit a KP7 with one the strongest hemispheric power connections we have seen in a very long time. Unfortunately it is hitting in day light hours and it seems to be very short lived. So I would say the prior Wes-Enlil from Sunday
The question we are all asking, is will this sunspot continue. At the moment it seems NASA is down grading predictions for this sunspot region. Seem the coronal holes have a weaker wind stream and the small B class flare is going to brush off the left of us. Looking at the below comparison of the sunspots it seems 2822 or the northern coronal hole is beginning to spread. It remains capable of producing a CME with tightly wrapped polarities. but the outer edges seem to be growing and spreading. It is has seem to reduce activity as it is
The phi angle has take a shift as the coronal hole stream impacts us. The predicted KP4 , KP5 and KP6 are based on the coronal hole streams that should impact us starting sometime Tuesday, not so far on CME’s. The great news is though we have a had small B class flare that did produce a CME , this should impact us after the coronal hole stream impacts us so this means, very likely another scoop shovel event similar to what we saw last month. You should expect sudden impact spikes and you need to be watching your apps
Seems that our sunspot is continuing to grow. If you look at the above image and compare the two sunspots you will notice some drastic changes. The large incoming spot is growing and the polarities are becoming more defined. It continues to spark off small snaps and pops. While the earth facing sunspot is loosing it’s energy and spreading. … Continue readingUpdate On The Growing Sunspot
Yesterday caught a news report from Sky news out of Australia that was very fascinating. Someone filmed a meeting they had with a top CNN reporter. They caught the reporter admitting that everything in the news is being decided by the owners of several big news organization in advance . He admitted that some stories they made up and created to manipulate the public. He admitted that media was skewing facts to fit their narrative and control public reactions. He also point blank said that, “Climate change will be the new racism because we can keep that going for years”.
May started off a little quite but it isn’t likely to stay that way. On May 7th we had a M3.91 size flare. We are not likely to see much activity from this flare, as it was not earth facing. However this is a very good size sunspot with very complex structures. As you watch the video below you will see several snaps as it erupts at the sunspot then a tidal wave that floods out along magnetic fields from that sunspot region. Experts are predicting that we are very likely to see more than one flare out of the
Good news is there might be a very brief chance at getting auroras tonight in the very early evening. NOAA is predicting the peak about 6 to 8 pm eastern time but there could be lingering auroras into the evening hours. Most areas might see partly cloudy skies with increasing clouds into Monday. Never know until you try, that is the fun of hunting. Have fun and show us your best shot! Monday night into Tuesday will see possible thunderstorms early in morning and then again on Wednesday. Might be the first chance of lightning in the Great Lakes. If
We have achieved KP 5 early as I suspected we would. We do have high clouds through much of the viewing area. There are two a patches of heaving clouds, one back in North/central Wisconsin and one of UP. These are slowly moving eastward and there may be a window in next few hour on western side of the state. We do have a heavier cloud system off the west of Lake Michigan that will be incoming through the over night hours and rain should be through most of Northern Michigan by Sat afternoon. Unfortunately doesn’t appear clouds will let
We are going to start this post out a little different , at the request of some of our RVers who want a shareable post. The South East will see dangerous storms setting up this afternoon into the over night hours. This could compass Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, and the Carolina’s . Tornados, derechos, high winds, and heavy lightning are all possible. If you are in Rv tonight would be a good night for getting a hotel, so you have sturdy shelter and are not in an RV. Make sure you have food and